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Betting & Analytics Glossary

Key terms used throughout Novus Sports — from basic betting concepts to advanced analytics.

ATS (Against the Spread)
Betting the point spread rather than the moneyline. A team can lose the game but still 'cover' if they lose by less than the spread.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The value obtained by comparing your bet's odds at placement to the closing odds just before the game starts. Positive CLV means you got a better number than the market settled on — the strongest indicator of long-term profitability.
Devig
Removing the sportsbook's built-in profit margin (vig/juice) from odds to find the true implied probability of each outcome.
Edge
The difference between your estimated fair probability and the book's implied probability. Positive edge = value bet.
Expected Value (EV)
EV = (probability × profit) − (probability of losing × stake). Positive EV means the bet is profitable long-term.
Fenwick %
Shot attempts (excluding blocked shots) percentage at 5v5. A key possession/shot quality metric in hockey.
Kelly Criterion
Mathematical formula to size bets optimally: f = (b×p − q) / b. Most bettors use quarter-Kelly to reduce variance.
Moneyline
A straight-up bet on which team wins. Expressed in American odds (+/− format).
Monte Carlo Simulation
Running thousands of virtual game simulations using historical stats to derive win probabilities and score distributions.
Net Rating (NetRtg)
Points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions. The best single measure of basketball team quality.
No-vig Odds
Fair odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, representing the 'true' market probability.
Offensive Rating (ORtg)
Points scored per 100 possessions — measures offensive efficiency in basketball.
Parlay
A single bet combining multiple selections (legs). All legs must win. Higher reward, higher risk.
PDO
In hockey: shooting% + save% (at 5v5). Regresses strongly to 100% — teams far above/below are due for regression.
Poisson Distribution
Statistical model used to estimate the probability of goal/scoring events in hockey and soccer, given a team's average goals per game.
Power Rating
A composite 0–100 score aggregating a team's offensive, defensive, efficiency, and form metrics relative to all other teams in the league.
Pythagorean Win%
Expected win percentage calculated from GF²/(GF²+GA²). Teams far above/below their actual record tend to regress.
Reverse Line Movement
When the line moves opposite to the direction of public betting percentage — a classic indicator of sharp (professional) money.
Rolling Average
A stat computed over the most recent N games (L10, L25, L50) rather than the season as a whole. Better reflects current team form.
Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
A parlay where all legs come from the same game. Legs are correlated, so the math differs from traditional parlays.
Sharp
A professional or high-volume bettor with a long-term demonstrated edge. Lines typically move in response to sharp money.
Steam Move
Rapid, coordinated line movement across multiple books simultaneously — typically caused by sharp betting groups acting at the same time.
Vig / Juice
The sportsbook's built-in commission, embedded in the odds. Standard is ~4.5% (e.g., -110 on both sides of a bet).
xG (Expected Goals)
The quality-weighted number of goals a team would be expected to score based on shot locations and types. Better predictor than actual goals for future performance.
xGA (Expected Goals Against)
The same metric from the defensive side — how many goals opponents would statistically expect to score.
wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)
A baseball metric that assigns different run-creation values to each offensive outcome (single, double, HR, walk, etc.). Better than batting average at predicting run scoring.

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